Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alessio Sakara
James Irvin
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
28
Age
Δ 3y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sakara: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Irvin: 6 sig / 0 TD
Alessio Sakara
James Irvin
39
Sig strikes landed
39
80
Sig strikes attempted
84
55
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
130s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alessio Sakara
"Legionarius"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
James Irvin
"The Sandman"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32