Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cheick Kongo
Paul Buentello
61%
39%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kongo: 53 sig / 9 TD ·
Buentello: 3 sig / 0 TD
Cheick Kongo
Paul Buentello
37
Sig strikes landed
32
80
Sig strikes attempted
70
52
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cheick Kongo
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
Paul Buentello
"The Headhunter"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36