Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Junior Dos Santos
Gabriel Gonzaga
77%
23%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dos Santos: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Gonzaga: 9 sig / 1 TD
Junior Dos Santos
Gabriel Gonzaga
32
Sig strikes landed
19
76
Sig strikes attempted
49
42
Total strikes landed
25
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
69s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Junior Dos Santos
"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31