Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brandon Vera
Jon Jones
9%
91%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
84"
32
Age
Δ 10y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vera: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 11 sig / 2 TD
Brandon Vera
Jon Jones
25
Sig strikes landed
45
61
Sig strikes attempted
87
40
Total strikes landed
63
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
72s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brandon Vera
"The Truth"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Jon Jones
"Bones"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23