Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rousimar Palhares
Tomasz Drwal
41%
59%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Palhares: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Drwal: 0 sig / 0 TD
Rousimar Palhares
Tomasz Drwal
31
Sig strikes landed
41
68
Sig strikes attempted
86
50
Total strikes landed
60
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Tomasz Drwal
"Gorilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28