Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ricardo Almeida
Matt Brown
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Almeida: 15 sig / 5 TD ·
Brown: 6 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Almeida
Matt Brown
32
Sig strikes landed
39
75
Sig strikes attempted
84
49
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
142s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ricardo Almeida
"Big Dog"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29