Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kurt Pellegrino
Fabricio Camoes
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pellegrino: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Camoes: 8 sig / 1 TD
Kurt Pellegrino
Fabricio Camoes
39
Sig strikes landed
37
79
Sig strikes attempted
78
50
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kurt Pellegrino
"Batman"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Fabricio Camoes
"Morango"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31