Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ben Saunders
Jon Fitch
34%
66%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saunders: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Fitch: 72 sig / 2 TD
Ben Saunders
Jon Fitch
38
Sig strikes landed
35
84
Sig strikes attempted
77
54
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Jon Fitch
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32