🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Frank Mir
Shane Carwin
60%
40%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mir: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Carwin: 49 sig / 0 TD
Frank Mir
Shane Carwin
45
Sig strikes landed
46
86
Sig strikes attempted
80
61
Total strikes landed
78
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Frank Mir
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
Blue corner
Shane Carwin
"The Engineer"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35