Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Scott Jorgensen
Chad George
45%
55%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jorgensen: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
George: 0 sig / 0 TD
Scott Jorgensen
Chad George
35
Sig strikes landed
39
71
Sig strikes attempted
82
47
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Chad George
"Savage"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28