Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bart Palaszewski
Karen Darabedyan
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Palaszewski: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Darabedyan: 18 sig / 1 TD
Bart Palaszewski
Karen Darabedyan
39
Sig strikes landed
34
82
Sig strikes attempted
75
53
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
145s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bart Palaszewski
"Bartimus"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Karen Darabedyan
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23