Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Erik Koch
57%
43%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
25
Age
Δ 3y
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mendes: 24 sig / 6 TD ·
Koch: 14 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Erik Koch
35
Sig strikes landed
38
64
Sig strikes attempted
82
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chad Mendes
"Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21