Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Danny Castillo
81%
19%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pettis: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Castillo: 5 sig / 1 TD
Anthony Pettis
Danny Castillo
41
Sig strikes landed
33
86
Sig strikes attempted
72
58
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31