Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
George Roop
Leonard Garcia
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Roop: 38 sig / 4 TD ·
Garcia: 25 sig / 0 TD
George Roop
Leonard Garcia
48
Sig strikes landed
43
160
Sig strikes attempted
109
47
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
George Roop
15-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
Leonard Garcia
"Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31