Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Fredson Paixao
Courtney Buck
64%
36%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Paixao: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Buck: 1 sig / 0 TD
Fredson Paixao
Courtney Buck
34
Sig strikes landed
38
69
Sig strikes attempted
78
53
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Fredson Paixao
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Courtney Buck
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28