Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Bendy Casimir
73%
27%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lamas: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Casimir: 4 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Bendy Casimir
39
Sig strikes landed
33
85
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Bendy Casimir
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30