Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Raphael Assuncao
67%
33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Faber: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Assuncao: 14 sig / 0 TD
Urijah Faber
Raphael Assuncao
34
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
77
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
164s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Raphael Assuncao
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28