Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Jamie Varner
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Henderson: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Varner: 23 sig / 1 TD
Benson Henderson
Jamie Varner
35
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
75
51
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner
Jamie Varner
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25