Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamal Shalorus
Dave Jansen
20%
80%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Shalorus: 46 sig / 4 TD ·
Jansen: 43 sig / 0 TD
Kamal Shalorus
Dave Jansen
29
Sig strikes landed
44
66
Sig strikes attempted
88
41
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
128s
Control time
227s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kamal Shalorus
"Prince of Persia"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
Blue corner
Dave Jansen
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30