Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Charlie Valencia
Akitoshi Tamura
53%
47%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
35
Age
Δ 6y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Valencia: 42 sig / 1 TD ·
Tamura: 29 sig / 0 TD
Charlie Valencia
Akitoshi Tamura
37
Sig strikes landed
42
77
Sig strikes attempted
87
56
Total strikes landed
59
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
185s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Charlie Valencia
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
Akitoshi Tamura
"The Ironman"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30