Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mark Hominick
Bryan Caraway
45%
55%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
28
Age
Δ 2y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Hominick: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Caraway: 8 sig / 1 TD
Mark Hominick
Bryan Caraway
36
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
84
51
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mark Hominick
"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25