Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
Marius Zaromskis
72%
28%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Diaz: 94 sig / 0 TD ·
Zaromskis: 26 sig / 0 TD
Nick Diaz
Marius Zaromskis
37
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
65
53
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Diaz
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Marius Zaromskis
"The Whitemare"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30