Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Byrnes
Dave Zitanick
85%
15%
Why
20
Age
Δ 10y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Michael Byrnes
Dave Zitanick
45
Sig strikes landed
38
108
Sig strikes attempted
94
58
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
3.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Byrnes
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
20
Blue corner
Dave Zitanick
0-0
Career record
Age
30