Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cristiane Justino
Marloes Coenen
88%
12%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Justino: 52 sig / 1 TD ·
Coenen: 19 sig / 0 TD
Cristiane Justino
Marloes Coenen
51
Sig strikes landed
40
102
Sig strikes attempted
99
87
Total strikes landed
72
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
198s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cristiane Justino
"Cyborg"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Marloes Coenen
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Age
29