Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Herschel Walker
Greg Nagy
34%
66%
Why
48
Age
Δ 22y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Walker: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Nagy: 5 sig / 0 TD
Herschel Walker
Greg Nagy
37
Sig strikes landed
36
61
Sig strikes attempted
63
71
Total strikes landed
58
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.5
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.70
240s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Herschel Walker
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
48
Blue corner
Greg Nagy
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26