Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Melvin Manhoef
61%
39%
Why
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lawler: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Manhoef: 23 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Melvin Manhoef
36
Sig strikes landed
31
77
Sig strikes attempted
71
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Melvin Manhoef
"No Mercy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34