Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Bobby Lashley
Wes Sims
62%
38%
Why
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lashley: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Sims: 0 sig / 0 TD
Bobby Lashley
Wes Sims
31
Sig strikes landed
37
66
Sig strikes attempted
76
53
Total strikes landed
52
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
183s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bobby Lashley
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Wes Sims
"The Project"
0-0
Career record
Height
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31