Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jay Hieron
Joe Riggs
26%
74%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
34
Age
Δ 6y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hieron: 21 sig / 3 TD ·
Riggs: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jay Hieron
Joe Riggs
33
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
48
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
234s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jay Hieron
"The Thoroughbred"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Joe Riggs
"Diesel"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27