Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Ray
John Clarke
95%
5%
Why
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Joe Ray
John Clarke
46
Sig strikes landed
38
105
Sig strikes attempted
91
92
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
189s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joe Ray
0-0
Career record
Age
25
Blue corner
John Clarke
0-0
Career record
Age
33