Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Keith Jardine
88%
12%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
27
Age
Δ 8y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Bader: 29 sig / 3 TD ·
Jardine: 15 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Keith Jardine
41
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
61
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Keith Jardine
"The Dean of Mean"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34