Light Heavyweight
Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
·Qudos Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Krzysztof Soszynski
Stephan Bonnar
33%
67%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Soszynski: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Bonnar: 36 sig / 2 TD
Krzysztof Soszynski
Stephan Bonnar
37
Sig strikes landed
33
69
Sig strikes attempted
73
53
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Krzysztof Soszynski
"The Polish Experiment"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Open Stance
Age
33
Blue corner
Stephan Bonnar
"The American Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33