Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Lytle
Brian Foster
31%
69%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lytle: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Foster: 5 sig / 1 TD
Chris Lytle
Brian Foster
32
Sig strikes landed
39
72
Sig strikes attempted
84
49
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
149s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Brian Foster
"The Foster Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26