Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chael Sonnen
Nate Marquardt
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sonnen: 39 sig / 6 TD ·
Marquardt: 11 sig / 0 TD
Chael Sonnen
Nate Marquardt
33
Sig strikes landed
35
76
Sig strikes attempted
72
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chael Sonnen
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
Blue corner
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31