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Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman

UFC 109: Relentless ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Randy Couture
Mark Coleman
61% 39%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
47
Age
Δ 2y
45

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Couture: 44 sig / 1 TD · Coleman: 10 sig / 0 TD
Randy Couture
Mark Coleman
38
Sig strikes landed
38
78
Sig strikes attempted
79
54
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Randy Couture

"The Natural"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
47
Blue corner

Mark Coleman

"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45