Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Mike Swick
60%
40%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Thiago: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Swick: 7 sig / 1 TD
Paulo Thiago
Mike Swick
38
Sig strikes landed
37
81
Sig strikes attempted
80
52
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paulo Thiago
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Mike Swick
"Quick"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31