Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Dan Miller
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 4y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 30 sig / 4 TD ·
Miller: 20 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Dan Miller
37
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
75
53
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Demian Maia
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner
Dan Miller
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29