Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matt Serra
Frank Trigg
41%
59%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
36
Age
Δ 2y
38
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Serra: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Trigg: 6 sig / 0 TD
Matt Serra
Frank Trigg
32
Sig strikes landed
40
66
Sig strikes attempted
83
46
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Frank Trigg
"Twinkle Toes"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38