Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mac Danzig
Justin Buchholz
60%
40%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Danzig: 62 sig / 3 TD ·
Buchholz: 30 sig / 0 TD
Mac Danzig
Justin Buchholz
37
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
81
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mac Danzig
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Justin Buchholz
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27