Back to UFC 109: Relentless
Prelims1 Lightweight

Melvin Guillard vs Ronys Torres

UFC 109: Relentless ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Ronys Torres
30% 70%
Why
27
Age
Δ 8y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guillard: 34 sig / 0 TD · Torres: 6 sig / 5 TD
Melvin Guillard
Ronys Torres
34
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
73
50
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
88s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Melvin Guillard

"The Young Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Ronys Torres

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35