Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rob Emerson
Phillipe Nover
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Emerson: 26 sig / 7 TD ·
Nover: 19 sig / 0 TD
Rob Emerson
Phillipe Nover
40
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
83
56
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rob Emerson
"The Saint"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Phillipe Nover
"The Filipino Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26