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Phil Davis vs Brian Stann

UFC 109: Relentless ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Brian Stann
79% 21%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Davis: 48 sig / 3 TD · Stann: 5 sig / 0 TD
Phil Davis
Brian Stann
41
Sig strikes landed
32
83
Sig strikes attempted
67
57
Total strikes landed
45
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Phil Davis

"Mr. Wonderful"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Brian Stann

"All American"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29