Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Tuchscherer
Tim Hague
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
34
Age
Δ 8y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Tuchscherer: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Hague: 34 sig / 1 TD
Chris Tuchscherer
Tim Hague
34
Sig strikes landed
40
67
Sig strikes attempted
100
56
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
193s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Tuchscherer
"The Crowbar"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Tim Hague
"The Trashing Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27