Back to UFC 109: Relentless
Heavyweight

Joey Beltran vs Rolles Gracie

UFC 109: Relentless ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Joey Beltran
Rolles Gracie
60% 40%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Beltran: 22 sig / 0 TD · Gracie: 15 sig / 1 TD
Joey Beltran
Rolles Gracie
36
Sig strikes landed
40
72
Sig strikes attempted
75
56
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Joey Beltran

"The Mexicutioner"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Rolles Gracie

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32