Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Evan Dunham
Efrain Escudero
35%
65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Dunham: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Escudero: 26 sig / 0 TD
Evan Dunham
Efrain Escudero
33
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
78
50
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
135s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Evan Dunham
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Efrain Escudero
"Hecho En Mexico"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24