Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Aaron Simpson
Tom Lawlor
51%
49%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Simpson: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Lawlor: 52 sig / 1 TD
Aaron Simpson
Tom Lawlor
34
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
77
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27