Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gray Maynard
Nate Diaz
39%
61%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Maynard: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 70 sig / 0 TD
Gray Maynard
Nate Diaz
29
Sig strikes landed
41
59
Sig strikes attempted
83
44
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
169s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gray Maynard
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Nate Diaz
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25