Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Jay Silva
84%
16%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leben: 60 sig / 2 TD ·
Silva: 15 sig / 0 TD
Chris Leben
Jay Silva
38
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
Jay Silva
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29