Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rick Story
Jesse Lennox
60%
40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
25
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Story: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Lennox: 22 sig / 1 TD
Rick Story
Jesse Lennox
38
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rick Story
"The Horror"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
Jesse Lennox
"The Ox"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28