Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Nik Lentz
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Tavares: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Lentz: 71 sig / 4 TD
Thiago Tavares
Nik Lentz
35
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
80
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Thiago Tavares
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25