Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Mike Guymon
87%
13%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
20
Age
Δ 15y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
MacDonald: 8 sig / 2 TD ·
Guymon: 6 sig / 0 TD
Rory MacDonald
Mike Guymon
42
Sig strikes landed
37
84
Sig strikes attempted
81
51
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Mike Guymon
"The Joker"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35